again IT’S HURRICANE SEASON ! A LOOK AT A FEW FACTS OF THE PROPERTIES,
with these storms.
Let’s ask and answer a few questions associated with tropi-cal
PROCESSES, AND IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORMS
AND HURRICANES B Y RO G E R D . S H EW
ORTH CAROLINA, and its southeast
coast in particular, is one of the three most
impacted states for tropical cyclones. The
others are Florida and Louisiana, though
all of the Gulf and Atlantic states have
experienced their share of damaging winds,
storm surge and flooding that are associ-ated
HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST:
WHEN AND WHY?
There are multiple forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane sea-son.
One of the ones to be particularly aware of is the NOAA
forecast. The 2019 preseason forecast from NOAA was issued
on May 23rd — this is the official U.S. government outlook.
This is when several of the controlling factors that may either
enhance or suppress hurricane formation and strength dur-ing
the upcoming storm season are better known; several
of these factors include El Nino/La Nina strength, Atlantic
Multi-Decadal Oscillation, sea surface temperatures, wind
shear potential, and the African monsoon intensity. There is
an update in August that incorporates conditions at that time.
This is an important update as the late August to mid-October
time frame has the most and usually most intense hurricanes.
You have probably heard of multiple other prediction cen-ters
including Colorado State University and NC State, each
of which has offered predictions for 2019. Colorado has
predicted 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hur-ricanes.
NC State calls for 13 - 16 named storms, five to seven hurricanes, and two to three major hurricanes.
These numbers are at or slightly above 30-year averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major
WBM june 2019